Reference warming trajectory for adaptation (TRACC)
France's official assumption of 4°C of warming by 2100 in mainland France, against which the state asks infrastructure and public policy adaptation to be aligned.
Adapting requires choosing a future climate; without a common assumption, each grid operator, each local authority and each insurer designs against a different scenario, often the most optimistic. The TRACC sets a single reference for mainland France, a prudent one because it assumes that global commitments will not be fully met. It was built into the third national adaptation plan, which draws measures from it for buildings, water, agriculture and natural hazards. For insurance, it finally provides an official scenario against which to test the sustainability of the natural catastrophe regime and long-term pricing.
The third national climate change adaptation plan, presented on March 10, 2025, adopts a trajectory of +2°C in 2030, +2.7°C in 2050 and +4°C in 2100 for mainland France, relative to the pre-industrial era.
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