Hyperinflation
Prices rising at least 50% a month, in Cagan's definition. For an insurer it means sums insured and reserves that melt away, and underinsurance across the book.
In 1956, economist Phillip Cagan set a threshold everyone still quotes: hyperinflation is prices rising 50% a month. Zimbabwe blew far past it in 2008, to the point of abandoning its own currency the following year; Venezuela crossed it starting in 2016. Argentina, with 211% inflation for 2023, stays below Cagan's line, which changes nothing for a local insurer. Accountants have their own test: IAS 29, the standard on hyperinflationary economies, applies notably when cumulative inflation over three years approaches or exceeds 100%. It has applied to financial statements in Argentina since July 2018 and in Turkey since 2022, and requires restating them in the current measuring unit. For property insurance, hyperinflation works through three channels. Sums insured set at inception are worth nothing six months later, and average (the pro rata condition) cuts the indemnity for an insured who did not revalue. Loss reserves shrink in real terms while repair costs soar, and settlement speed becomes a pricing variable. Investments in local currency lose their value. The market responds with dollar-denominated policies, indexation clauses and sums insured revised during the year, where exchange regulations allow it. The qualification: a dollar policy in a country with capital controls raises the question of what currency the claim is actually paid in. Not to be confused with social inflation, which drives up liability claim costs through case law and juries, with no link to the currency.
Textbook case: an Argentine plant is insured in early 2023 for 2 billion pesos, its rebuilding value at the time. By December, with annual inflation at 211%, the same rebuild costs about 6 billion. A fire destroys half the building. Under average, the insurer compares the sum insured with the actual value (one third) and pays about 1 billion pesos on a 3 billion loss, unless the contract carries an indexation or tolerance clause.
hyperinflation, hyperinflationary economy, runaway inflation, IAS 29 hyperinflation, Cagan threshold
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