Risks linked to deploying constellations of thousands of satellites, including orbital congestion and systemic collision risk.
Megaconstellation risk covers the exposures linked to deploying constellations of thousands, even tens of thousands of satellites in low orbit, intended notably to provide global internet connectivity. This model concentrates several new risks. The orbital congestion it generates sharply increases the probability of collisions, which can in turn generate debris and feed a runaway effect, the Kessler syndrome, threatening all objects in orbit. The accumulation risk changes in nature: a serial defect affecting a satellite model produced in large numbers, or a degradation of the orbital environment, can simultaneously affect an entire fleet. The growing dependence of the economy and critical services on these constellations also creates a systemic risk in the event of massive failure. For insurance, the megaconstellation shifts the analysis from the unit satellite toward the modelling of a population of interdependent objects, and raises the question of the insurability of a risk whose aggregate severity could exceed the capacity of the traditional space market.
A chain collision within a megaconstellation, generating debris that threatens other satellites, illustrates the systemic risk specific to this model and the difficulty of its insurability.
megaconstellation risk, risque de mégaconstellation, constellation de satellites