Starlink in Ukraine (2022)
Starlink's activation over Ukraine in February 2022 turned a commercial constellation into wartime infrastructure, and a private operator's decision into a political risk.
A commercial satellite network sold as a consumer service can become, within days, the communications backbone of an army and of a state at war. Two risks then arise that space policies had not been written for. The first is targeting: a civilian satellite serving a belligerent may be declared a legitimate objective, which brings the war exclusion of in-orbit policies into play. The second is dependence: coverage rests on the decision of a private operator, who can restrict it without the consent of the state that relies on it. That is political risk in the strict sense, carried by a commercial contract, and it is the junction this observatory studies.
On February 26, 2022, two days after the Russian invasion, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov publicly asked for Starlink to be switched on, and service opened the same day; in October 2022, a Russian diplomat told the United Nations that commercial satellites serving a belligerent could become legitimate targets. Elon Musk's biography, published in September 2023, reported that he had refused in September 2022 to extend coverage toward Crimea for a Ukrainian operation.
Follow the research
One letter a week. First, the week's underwriting note, when one is published: a dated, argued decision, signed by Paul Bernardski. Then what the observatory published on cyber risk, political risk and insurance. No account, no tracking.
No spam, one-click unsubscribe, no data ever sold.