Risk of ground damage or liability linked to the uncontrolled fall of space debris during atmospheric reentry.
Re-entry risk refers to the exposure to ground or third-party damage caused by the uncontrolled fall of a space object, an end-of-life satellite or a launcher stage, during its reentry into the atmosphere. Most small objects burn up completely from heating, but large-mass stages or heat-resistant components can reach the ground intact. The risk differs from other space perils in its geographic uncertainty: an uncontrolled reentry can only be predicted within a few hours and over a wide trajectory band, which makes targeted evacuation of a zone impossible and shifts the analysis toward a statistical probability of damage rather than a known location. The 1972 Liability Convention establishes, as a matter of principle, absolute liability for the launching state for damage caused on the ground by a space object, regardless of fault, which sets this peril apart from the fault-based regime that applies to damage occurring in orbit. For insurance, the growing number of launches and the aging of heavy-stage launchers have revived the question of liability and its coverage, as space traffic and the total mass of end-of-life objects continue to grow.
Since 2020, several uncontrolled reentries of the roughly 20-tonne first stage of China's Long March 5B rocket have been tracked worldwide, with their impact point unpredictable more than a few hours in advance.
re-entry risk, rentrée non contrôlée, uncontrolled reentry, chute de débris spatiaux