Alliance of Sahel States (AES)

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) is a defense pact concluded in 2023 by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which became a confederation and whose members left ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) in January 2025. On September 16, 2023, in Bamako, the leaders of the juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed the Liptako-Gourma Charter, a mutual defense pact: an attack on one counts as aggression against the others. Seven weeks earlier, the July 26 coup in Niamey had brought Niger ECOWAS sanctions and a threat of armed intervention. On January 28, 2024, the three states announced their immediate withdrawal from the Community; the revised treaty requires one year's notice, and the exit took effect at the end of January 2025. In the meantime, on July 6, 2024 in Niamey, the Alliance turned itself into a confederation. For a political risk underwriter, the AES reads on three overlapping levels. Contracts first. Mali in 2023 and Burkina Faso in 2024 rewrote their mining codes, and all three governments have renegotiated, sometimes under duress, with foreign operators: the dispute between Bamako and the operator of Loulo-Gounkoto, or the withdrawal of the Imouraren permit followed by the takeover of SOMAÏR (Société des mines de l'Aïr) in Niger, have become textbook cases of creeping expropriation and breach of stabilization clauses. Sanctions next. By leaving ECOWAS, the three states removed themselves from its sanctions regime, but also from its free movement protocols and its preferential tariff. In 2026 they remained members of WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) and OHADA (Organization for the Harmonization of Business Law in Africa), and their payments still go through the BCEAO (Central Bank of West African States). Alliances last. The departure of French forces, the end of MINUSMA (United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali), military rapprochement with Russia: security partners changed in under three years, and with them the likelihood of a realignment of trade rules. The pricing difficulty comes from the fact that each decision is taken fast, by decree, and that arbitral recourse runs through tribunals whose local enforcement remains uncertain.